Primefiles reddit5/29/2023 ![]() To understand the variability around the drop chance, we have to use the negative binomial distribution. It turns out that if your desired item has a drop rate of 1/64, then after 64 pulls, there's only a 63.6% chance that you have the item. (See also my old post on how often a +5% chance to hit actually converts into more hits.) This is a recurring theme in gaming and probability - yes, we know what the average experience is, but the amount of variability around that can be quite large. Intuitively, it makes sense that if the item has a 1/64 chance of dropping, then by the time you've fought the monster 64 times, you should have a pretty good chance of having the item.Īlthough it's true that the average number of required pulls is 64, there's still a substantial role of chance. Watching people try to get these items reveals an interesting misunderstanding about how probability works. In Pokemon, there are "shiny" versions of normal Pokemon that have a very small chance of appearing (in the newest games, the chance is something like 1/4096). In Earthbound, the "Sword of Kings" has a 1/128 chance of dropping when you fight a particular monster. It has a 1/64 chance of dropping when you fight a particular monster. These items are generally included as a way to let players kill an awful lot of time as they roll the dice again and again trying to get the desired item.įor example, in Final Fantasy 4, there is an item called the "pink tail" that grants you the best armor in the game. One trope of late-game design for role-playing games are rare drops - highly desirable items that have a low probability of appearing after a battle. Growing up, I played a lot of role-playing games for the Super Nintendo. ![]()
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